How often does historians talk about the subject of "what if" scenarios? Or it never happens?

by Knight-300

I'm on a phone so I'm sorry for my English!

I think everyone will understand what I mean, but by "what if" scenarios, I mean asking questions about how a certain event from history would have happened if X thing occurred instead of the real thing, and then trying to write a scenario aboit that.

Example: What if Dacia won the first wars against the Roman Empire? (I know this is VERY specific and not even a likely scenario to be honest)

Going with my assumptions, I think this thing almost never happens. Beside the historian working as a consultant for someone who is interested in a certain scenario (an author for example), or a potential small game between historians for fun purposes, I can't think of any other situation when this might be actually needed. Maybe in debates where one party is using false history?

Bodark43

The English word is "counterfactual". It is both a noun and an adjective, so we can talk about counterfactuals, and make counterfactual arguments. Historians use them quite a bit, but they need to be limited. For example, we can say that if Lincoln had not been assassinated, Reconstruction would have been better implemented- because his Vice President, Andrew Johnson, was a southerner who did not want to have it. But we can't say that Reconstruction under Lincoln would have been successful, because we know that the south would have opposed it regardless of whether Lincoln or Johnson was in charge. Of course, you run into many wild uses of counterfactuals that try to make such big leaps: like, if the Aztecs and Incas had had ships, they could have successfully fought off the Spanish conquistadors.

But we also use counterfactuals when we don't have direct sources. We don't have really clear evidence of exactly what advanced in wire-making in the late 13th c., but right around 1300 a lot of musical instruments appeared which used lots of strong metal wire- the chekker, the harpsichord, the clavichord, and the dulcimer. So, we can say that likely wire-making did get better then, because otherwise we would have seen those instruments appear earlier.

Counterfactuals are embedded in the language. Many languages ( at least German, Dutch and French) have a conditional verb form for them: like "if I had known you were going to be there at 4:00, I would have been able to meet you". So, they are very much a topic in philosophy. Here's an English article on them. But, you might find it easier to translate "counterfactual" into your own language.